Analyzing The Democrats’ Final Iowa Caucus Schedules

January 27th, 2016
Analyzing The Democrats’ Final Iowa Caucus Schedules

Here we are: the final few days of the Iowa Caucus. How a candidate spends their time in the precious waning hours says a lot about the state of the race and what each feels they still need to accomplish. The three Democrats plan on barnstorming the state, with Hillary Clinton bringing in Bill and Chelsea to help out, while Bernie Sanders plans a huge concert at the University of Iowa.

Let’s take a look at each Democrats’ final schedule to see what it might mean for their caucus night strategy. (Sorry for some of the awkward formatting, I’m just copy-and-pasting this from their press releases, which obviously don’t follow the same format.)

Hillary Clinton

Clinton will have spent at least part of every of the final ten days in Iowa. Friday and Saturday looks like a media market swing, with Friday targeting heavily Democratic-population centers. She brings in the full family for her end-of-the-day events in the three most important counties for Democrats: Scott, Linn and Polk.

What’s interesting is her Sunday schedule, her last full day of campaigning. It takes her through her strongholds of Western Iowa and Des Moines’ South Side, where she looks positioned to win again. Visiting these areas is likely an effort to draw large crowds and run up the delegate totals. She did the exact same thing in 2008. (Coincidentally, I have personally worked on past campaigns in Council Bluffs, Sioux City and the South Side. I’ll definitely be spending my Sunday with Clinton.)

Meanwhile, Bill Clinton hits up smaller towns of Waverly, Mt. Vernon, Washington and Ottumwa on Thursday. Everyone still loves the former President, and entire towns come out when he visits smaller communities.

And congrats to Drake University, who has completely dominated the Iowa Caucus landscape this year. They host the Clinton family for their caucus night victory party in Olmsted.

Thursday, January 28

Hillary Clinton will hold a conversation with Every Child Matters Education Fund.
Berg Middle School, 1900 N 5th Ave E, Newton, IA
2:45 p.m.

Hillary Clinton will hold a “Get Out the Caucus” event in Newton.
Berg Middle School, 1900 N 5th Ave E, Newton, IA
3:45 p.m.

Hillary Clinton will hold a “Get Out the Caucus” event in Keokuk.
Keokuk Middle School, 2002 Orleans Ave, Keokuk, IA
7:30 p.m.

Friday, January 29

Des Moines Get Out the Caucus Event
Where: Grand View University, 1200 Grandview Avenue, Des Moines
When: 11:45 AM

Dubuque Get Out the Caucus Event
Where: Five Flags Center, 405 Main Street, Dubuque
When: 3:45 PM

Quad Cities Get Out the Caucus Event with President Bill Clinton and Chelsea Clinton
Where: The Col Ballroom, 1012 West 4th Street, Davenport
When: 7:15 PM

Saturday, January 30

Ames Get Out the Caucus Event
Where: Howe Hall, Iowa State University, 537 Bissell Road, Ames
When: 11:45 AM

Carroll Get Out the Caucus Event
Where: Carrollton Inn, 1730 N US Highway 71 North, Carroll
When: 3:00 PM

Cedar Rapids Get Out the Caucus Event with President Bill Clinton & Chelsea Clinton
Where: Washington High School, 2205 Forest Drive Southeast, Cedar Rapids
When: 7:15 PM

Sunday, January 31

Council Bluffs Get Out the Caucus Event
Where: Abraham Lincoln High School, 1205 Bonham Street, Council Bluffs
When: 2:30 PM

Sioux City Get Out the Caucus Event
Where: Sioux City Convention Center, 801 4th Street, Sioux City
When: 5:15 PM

Des Moines Get Out the Caucus Event with President Bill Clinton and Chelsea Clinton
Where: Abraham Lincoln High School, 2600 Southwest 9th Street, Des Moines
When: 8:00 PM

Monday, February 1

Caucus Night Victory Party with President Bill Clinton and Chelsea Clinton
Where: Parents Hall Olmsted Center, Drake University, 2875 University Avenue, Des Moines

 

Bernie Sanders

Sanders is taking a very workman-like approach to his final swing, much as he has throughout all of January. Cramming as many events as possible into each day, Sanders is making sure he maximizes his exposure, as opposed to the odd limitation of Clinton’s three-a-day method.

They’re conducting a big southeast Iowa swing on Thursday and Friday, hitting some smaller towns of Fairfield, Mount Pleasant and Washington. Those are in a trio of rural counties that Obama carried in 2008 in that region. Perhaps they see an opportunity to replicate that success.

He also hits up Burlington, Muscatine and Davenport, three Mississippi River cities with many working class voters and union members. Blue collar Eastern Iowa is where he’s going to need to run up his margins in the heavily Democratic counties, and these are some key ones.

Saturday and Sunday contain opportunities for large rallies in the major Democratic cities of Cedar Rapids and Waterloo, along with what will likely be blow-out night events in Iowa City and Des Moines. Projecting momentum and excitement is key for Sanders to rally his first-time caucus-goers to get out on a cold, possibly snowy Monday night.

Thursday, January 28

10 a.m. Roosevelt High School Forum, Roosevelt High School, 4419 Center St, Des Moines
Information for the public: This event is for Roosevelt High School students, faculty, and staff only.
3:30 p.m. Ottumwa Volunteer Canvass Launch, Bernie 2016 Ottumwa Field Office, 226 W. Main St, Ottumwa
4:30 p.m. Fairfield Volunteer Rally (with special guest Susan Sarandon), Sondheim Center, 200 N. Main St, Fairfield
7 p.m. Burlington Rally, Burlington Memorial Auditorium, 200 N. Front St, Burlington

Friday, January 29

11 a.m. Mount Pleasant Town Meeting, Iowa Wesleyan College, Howe Student Activity Center, Mount Pleasant
1 p.m. Washington Volunteer Canvass Launch, Cafe Dodici, 122 S. Iowa Ave, Washington
2:30 p.m. Muscatine Volunteer Canvass Launch, Bernie 2016 Muscatine Field Office, 106 E. 2nd St, Muscatine
5:30 p.m. Davenport Rally (with special guest Dr. Cornel West), Danceland Ballroom, 501 W. 4th St, Davenport
7:30 p.m. Dubuque Rally (with special guest Dr. Cornel West), Grand River Event Center, 500 Bell St, Dubuque

Saturday, January 30

11 a.m. Manchester Volunteer Rally, Delaware County Fairgrounds (Community Center), 200 E. Acers St., Manchester
1:15 p.m. Charles City Volunteer Canvass Launch, Private Residence
2:30 p.m. Waverly Canvass Launch, Wartburg College, Whitehouse Business Center, Waverly
6 p.m. Cedar Rapids Rally (with special guest Dr. Cornel West), DoubleTree Convention Center Complex, Grand Ballroom, 350 1st Ave. NE, Cedar Rapids
6:30 p.m. Iowa City Concert and Rally (with Vampire Weekend and other special guests), University of Iowa, Iowa Field House, 225 S. Grand Ave, Iowa City

Sunday, January 31

2 p.m. Waterloo Rally, Five Sullivan Brothers Convention Center, 205 West Fourth St., Waterloo
4:30 p.m. Marshalltown Canvass Launch, Bernie 2016 Marshalltown Headquarters, 30 W. Main St., Marshalltown
5:45 p.m. Ames Canvass Launch, Iowa State University Memorial Union, South Ballroom, 2229 Lincoln Way, Ames
7 p.m. Des Moines Rally with MoveOn.org and other special guests, Grand View University, Sisam Arena, 1500 Morton Ave., Des Moines

Monday, February 1

9 p.m. Bernie 2016 Iowa Caucus Celebration, Holiday Inn Airport, 6111 Fleur Dr, Des Moines

 

Martin O’Malley

O’Malley’s final push is actually a rather fascinating and smart strategy based on caucus math and special outreach efforts his campaign has worked hard on. He spends two full days in conservative Western Iowa.

This is a clever move for two reasons. For one, those precincts have lower turnout and less Democrats to pull from. So there’s less likely to be a huge Sanders newcomer surge out there that could overwhelm O’Malley’s numbers and make him non-viable. But those places still have a set number of delegates that he could snag and end up with decent percentages out there.

There’s also more skepticism to Sanders’ “socialist” label out there in Steve King country. Clinton is strong in Western Iowa, but there’s still enough people wary of her. O’Malley may be the better alternative there.

O’Malley is also focusing on several towns with strong Hispanic populations, like Denison and Storm Lake. His campaign has excelled in outreach to Latino activists throughout the campaign and received the state’s most-read Latino newspaper’s endorsement. Behind-the-scenes organizing has made O’Malley a strong contender for the Latino vote in Iowa, despite the size of his rivals’ operations.

He also hits up ISU’s campus on caucus day. O’Malley has visited several colleges in the last week, possibly sensing an in with Clinton’s weakness among young people, even despite Sanders’ overwhelming advantage there. At Grinnell College I’ve heard O’Malley is likely to come in second place, ahead of Clinton. It’s still a bit of a risk given Sanders’ sheer level of support in those precincts.

Friday, January 29th

1:00pm CST – Canvass Kickoff and Door Knocking in Council Bluffs
Home of State Rep. Charlie McConkey, 2222 L Avenue, Council Bluffs, IA

2:30pm CST – O’Malley Unplugged: New Leadership Tour stop in Harrison County
Missouri Valley Public Library Meeting Room, 420 East Huron St, Missouri Valley, IA

4:30pm CST – Canvass Kickoff and Phone Banking in Crawford County
Crawford County Abstract, 1305 Broadway #201 Denison, IA 51442

7:00pm CST – O’Malley Unplugged: New Leadership Tour stop in Woodbury County
O’Malley Field Office, 1408 Nebraska Street, Sioux City, IA 51105

Saturday, January 30th

9:00am CST – O’Malley Unplugged: New Leadership Tour stop in Cherokee
Danny’s Sports Spot, 1013 S 2nd St, Hwy 59, Cherokee, IA

11:00am CST – O’Malley Unplugged: New Leadership Tour stop in Clay County
The Bear, 24 W Park St, Spencer, IA

1:00pm CST – Canvass Kickoff and Door Knocking in Storm Lake
The Better Day Café, 518 Lake Ave North, Storm Lake 50588

2:45pm CST – O’Malley Unplugged: New Leadership Tour stop in Pocahontas County
Pocahontas Library, 14 2nd Avenue NW, Pocahontas, IA

5:00pm CST – Phone Banking in Boone
Home of Pam Nystrom, 1827 Boone Street, Boone 50036

7:00pm CST – Phone Banking in Des Moines
Des Moines Field Office, 405 SW 8th Street, Des Moines 50309

Sunday, January 31st

12:00pm CST – Canvass Kickoff & Door Knocking in Johnston
Home of Judy Anderson and Tom Leffler, 5985 NW 61st Ave, Johnston, IA

3:00pm CST – Canvass Kickoff and Door Knocking in Cedar Rapids
Cedar Rapids Field Office, 1953 1st Ave NE, Ste B1, Cedar Rapids 52402

5:30pm CST – Phone banking in Waterloo
Volks Haus, 324 E 4th St, Waterloo, IA

 

Monday, February 1st

8:30am CST – Media Availability with supporters
Outside Smokey Row, 1910 Cottage Grove Ave, Des Moines, IA

10:00am CST – Canvass Kick Off in Newton
514 S 6th Ave W, Newton, IA

12:00pm CST – ISU Presidential Series Town Hall w/ Martin O’Malley
Iowa State Memorial Union, South Ballroom, 2229 Lincoln Way, Ames, IA

3:30pm CST – Final Canvass Shift Kickoff in Des Moines
Des Moines Field Office, 405 SW 8th Street, Des Moines 50309

9:00pm CST –Caucus Night Party
Wooly’s, 504 E Locust St, Des Moines, IA 50309
Please RSVP here to cover the caucus night party.

 

 

by Pat Rynard
Posted 1/27/16

One thought on “Analyzing The Democrats’ Final Iowa Caucus Schedules

  1. Erin says:

    Do you think O’Malley is also likely to perform better than Clinton at Drake (since he did perform better at the mock caucus last night).

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