First Post-Convention Iowa Poll: Clinton Up 4, Grassley Up 10

A new NBC/Marist poll of Iowa was released this afternoon, the first major poll to come out for the Hawkeye state since the two national conventions and Donald Trump’s Khan family attacks. Hillary Clinton now leads Trump in Iowa by 4 points, 41% to 37%. That’s only up 1 point from their July poll that had Clinton leading 42% to 39%.

That might be disconcerting to Clinton supporters to only be ahead by 4 points after Trump’s worst stretch of weeks yet during the campaign. Clinton has pulled much further ahead in other states like Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado. The Trump campaign has long seen this as a key pick-up opportunity in the Midwest, with its older population and fewer minority communities that can be turned out to offset Trump’s gains among white, blue collar workers and senior citizens.

In a four-way race Clinton is tied with Trump. Clinton and Trump are both at 35%, Gary Johnson at 12% and Jill Stein 4%. Stein is not yet on the ballot here.

The previous NBC/Marist poll taken from July 5 – 10 had Clinton up 3 over Trump, 42% to 39%. A Monmouth poll from July 8 – 11 had Trump up 2, a CBS/YouGov from July 13 to 15 had Trump up 1.

Poll Timeframe Clinton Trump Diff
NBC/Marist 8/3 – 8/7 41 37 Clinton +4
CBS News/YouGov* 7/13 – 7/15 39 40 Trump +1
Monmouth* 7/8 – 7/11 42 44 Trump +2
NBC/Marist 7/5 – 7/10 42 39 Clinton +3
Gravis 7/7 – 7/8 42 40 Clinton +2

On the Iowa Senate race front, Grassley maintains his 10 point lead from earlier. The race remains completely unchanged from NBC/Marist’s poll in July. Grassley leads by 52% to 42% over Judge. Grassley is over-performing Trump by 15 points, while his lead over Judge over-performs Trump’s difference by 6 points.

Grassley has been held under 50% in a few polls this year, a troubling sign for the six-term incumbent. A PPP poll in June had Grassley up 7, 46%-39%, and a Loras Poll showed him up just by 1. The two similar results from NBC/Marist seem to indicate little has shifted in the Senate race over the past several months.

Poll Timeframe Grassley Judge Diff
NBC/Marist 8/3 – 8/7 52 42 Grassley +10
NBC/Marist 7/5 – 7/10 52 42 Grassley +10
Monmouth 7/8 – 7/11 52 42 Grassley +10
Loras College 6/24 – 6/28 46 45 Grassley +1
PPP 6/22 – 6/23 46 39 Grassley +7

Meanwhile, two polls today showed Clinton leading Trump in Pennsylvania by 10 and 11 points. It’s possible resources are later shifted to the clearly closer Iowa race. It’s also possible that the Clinton campaign won’t view Iowa as a must-win state considering there are many other options with Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, and will focus their efforts there instead.

Clinton is planning on visiting Des Moines tomorrow, her first trip since the Iowa Caucus. Trump has held three events here in that same time.

Starting Line will update this post when the full poll crosstabs come out.

 

by Pat Rynard
Posted 8/9/16

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