A new Loras Poll released on Thursday showed Hillary Clinton easily defeating Donald Trump in Iowa by over 14 points, 48.2% to 33.8% in a two-way matchup. And it has now become the third recent poll that shows Patty Judge within striking distance of Chuck Grassley. Loras puts the race at a surprisingly close 45.8% to 44.5% in Grassley’s favor. View the entire poll here.

Those are some amazingly good numbers for Democrats in this swing state, and perhaps a little too rosy. The Loras Poll is still a relatively new outfit, started in 2014 and operated by Loras College in Dubuque. While FiveThirtyEight’s pollster rankings gives them a “B-” in overall accuracy with 70% of races called correctly, there’s been times where their Iowa polls have been off the mark. In early September of 2014, they had Bruce Braley up 5% against Joni Ernst. Just a little over a week out from the Iowa Caucus, they had Hillary Clinton up 29 points over Bernie Sanders.

But a Democrat can hope, right?

Here are some more noteworthy results from the Loras Poll:

Hillary Clinton Favorable: 41.3%
Hillary Clinton Unfavorable: 53.0%

Donald Trump Favorable: 27.6%
Donald Trump Unfavorable: 68.9%

Chuck Grassley Favorable: 48.9%
Chuck Grassley Unfavorable: 41.4%
Chuck Grassley No Opinion/Never Heard Of: 9.7%

Patty Judge Favorable: 40.7%
Patty Judge Unfavorable: 22.6%
Patty Judge No Opinion/Never Heard Of: 36.5%

Obama Job Approve: 50.7%
Obama Job Disapprove: 44.7%

Direction of Country:
Right Track: 29.8%
Wrong Track: 56.0%
Undecided: 13.3%

4-Way Race (Jill Stein is not yet on the Iowa ballot):
Hillary Clinton: 44.0%
Donald Trump: 30.7%
Gary Johnson: 6.0%
Jill Stein: 2.2%
Undecided/Refused: 17.2%

Should Republicans nominate Trump or find someone else?
Nominate Trump: 51.5%
Find Another Candidate: 37.1%

You can look through the numbers yourself to see if you think the sampling of voters looks accurate to you. The education levels seemed a little high to me and the age breakdown a bit heavy on younger voters.

 

 

by Pat Rynard
Posted 6/30/16

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