A nonpartisan elections forecaster says Iowa is up for grabs in the 2026 midterm election. Cook Political Report moved Iowa’s race for governor between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn from a toss-up to “Lean Democrat.” It also moved Iowa’s US Senate race between Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson from “Lean Republican” to a toss-up.
Cook analyst Jessica Taylor pointed to the unique exposure of Iowa’s agriculture-dependent economy to rising fertilizer and diesel prices, along with tariffs, as part of what’s making the state harder for Republicans than expected.
The shift comes as both parties pour money into the state. The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican-aligned outside group, has committed $33 million to ads attacking Turek over missed votes in the Iowa Legislature. Turek released his own ad this week emphasizing the roughly 700 times he voted with Republicans in the state legislature and saying he’d work with Trump if elected. Cook noted Republicans privately believe the race is closer than they’d like, while some private Democratic polling has shown Turek within the margin of error against Hinson.
In the governor’s race, Cook said Sand has built a durable lead in both public and private polling against Lahn, who became the GOP nominee after defeating US Rep. Randy Feenstra in the primary. Sand’s campaign has focused on Lahn’s partial residence in Kansas and his background as a Koch-connected political operative.
Cook cautioned the ratings could shift back toward Republicans once fall advertising ramps up, and that summer polling sometimes overstates the strength of the party out of power.
Previously Cook has rated Republican US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ rematch with Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan in the 1st Congressional District as a toss-up. It has also rated Republican US Rep. Zach Nunn’s race against Democratic challenger Sarah Trone Garriott in the 3rd District a toss-up. In the 2nd District, it has also shifted the race between Republican Joe Mitchell and Democrat Lindsay James from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
