Trone Garriott and Konfrst ahead of Zach Nunn in new poll

A new poll shows two Democratic state lawmakers defeating a Republican incumbent in the race for Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District.

A new poll shows Republican US Rep. Zach Nunn trailing two Democratic candidates in a race to represent Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, which includes the Des Moines metro.

In what is expected to be one of the most competitive US House races in the country, polling data from Change Research shows state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott of West Des Moines leading Nunn with 53% of the vote compared to 40% for the two-term incumbent from Bondurant.

The poll also shows state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst of Windsor Heights capturing 50% of the vote in a head-to-head race against Nunn, who polled at 42% against her. Konfrst and Trone Garriott are battling it out to secure the Democratic nomination in next June’s primary.

“This poll shows clearly that Sarah is the strongest candidate to take on Zach Nunn,” said Zach Schenkman, Trone Garriott’s campaign manager. “Thanks to her focus on lowering costs for Iowans, her background as a Lutheran minister, and her proven track record as a state senator representing a Republican district, Sarah outperforms every other Democrat in critical suburban and rural communities.”

In her 2024 reelection bid, Trone Garriott defeated Republican Mark Hanson by 29 votes—she earned 20,467 votes compared to his 20,438—after a recount. This was also one of the most expensive state house races of the 2024 cycle.

Trone Garriott, who is in her third term in the Iowa Senate, was first elected in 2020 after defeating Clive Mayor Scott Cirksena by 146 votes. She won her second term by ousting former Iowa Senate President Jake Chapman in an otherwise weak cycle for Iowa Dems.

Konfrst was also pleased with the results of the poll, and said it’s “proof that Iowans are ready for better than Zach Nunn and his broken promises.”

“I’m a lifelong Iowan who knows what it means to show up for this district and fight for the working-class Iowans Zach Nunn has left behind,” Konfrst said in a release. “Iowans are ready for a battle-tested fighter who knows the challenges they’re facing and won’t cave to any party when it comes to defending Iowans’ dignity and livelihoods.”

“I’m ready to fight for Iowans on day one to lower costs, defend their healthcare, tackle corruption, and cut through the chaos in Washington,” she continued.

There is no press contact listed on Nunn’s campaign site. Starting Line reached out to the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is supporting the Nunn campaign, twice for comment on the Change Research poll, but did not receive a response.

Nunn was first elected to Congress in 2022 when he defeated former US Rep. Cindy Axne by a little more than 2,000 votes. However, Nunn won reelection by nearly 4% in 2024 while facing Democrat Lanon Baccam of Des Moines.

The Change Research poll also surveyed how all three candidates—Konfrst, Nunn, and Trone Garriott—fared in Polk County, Dallas County, and the rest of Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District. A majority of the district’s population resides in Polk and Dallas counties.

In Polk County, Trone Garriott and Konfrst lead Nunn 57% to 36%. In Dallas County, Trone Garriott leads Nunn 53% to 44% while Konfrst leads him 49% to 43%.

However, Nunn is the clear leader in the rest of the district. He leads Trone Garriott 50% to 41% and holds a 55% to 33% edge over Konfrst.

The poll was conducted by Change Research, a San Francisco-based political polling firm. Polling was conducted Oct. 23-27, and 638 likely 2026 voters in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District were polled.