Bohannan, Baccam make gains: Two of Iowa’s congressional races enter ‘toss up’ territory

Iowa’s all-Republican congressional delegation might be in for a shakeup.

Political analysts are beginning to reflect what organizers on the ground have known for months. Two congressional races in Iowa are tight.

Democratic challengers Christina Bohannan and Lanon Baccam have seen an updraft of volunteers and money as they take on incumbent Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn.

How tight is the race?

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has adjusted its rating for both races to a “Toss Up.” In Cook-speak, a “Toss Up” rating means the races are among the most competitive this cycle, and are races that either party stands a reasonable chance of winning.

“Much like in Omaha, Harris appears to be performing quite well in Nunn’s Des Moines #IA03,” Cook’s Dave Wasserman wrote on X. “Meanwhile, #IA01 Miller-Meeks still has a serious likeability problem w/ voters.” 

This is particularly interesting since, at this time in 2022, both races were rated “Lean Republican.” In Iowa’s first Congressional District race, the Bohannan v. Miller-Meeks matchup is the same as 2022, only the odds are even closer.

Nunn on abortion – US Rep. Zach Nunn avoided answering a question about his abortion record in Iowa and how it connects to the near-total ban that recently went into effect.

The loss of Iowa Democrats’ first-in-the-nation status meant changes for how campaigns run in Iowa. When Ed Cranston was reelected chair of the Johnson County Democrats in March 2023, he said it was already clear that county parties like his could not count on presidential campaigns to steer the bus or provide resources as they had in prior years.

He said the party needed to change gears. That meant regimented door-knocking and diligent fundraising. Nineteen months later, the county party’s “no off-year” organizing strategy seems to be bearing fruit.

“You walk into the district office and volunteers are being trained. People are making phone calls. People are picking up signs and asking, ‘Hey, what can I do?'” he said. “All of that adds to Christina (Bohannan).”

This has also been true for Democrats in Polk County. This year, they dropped literature at 95,000 doors in hopes of reaching 140,000 voters—big numbers even for the state’s largest county party.

Miller-Meeks on abortion – Mariannette-Miller Meeks has called herself a moderate, rational figure on abortion. Her voting record tells a different story.

For Polk and Johnson counties, turning out Democrats in large numbers will be key for Bohannan and Baccam as they mitigate far redder, less population-dense areas in the district. And failing to do so has consequences.

Kira Barker, executive director of the Polk County Democrats, pointed to gaps in the county’s voter turnout as a reason for Democrat Cindy Axne losing her seat in the House of Representatives in 2022. But she said the party has worked to turn this trend around. 

“Sometimes the basics aren’t done as often as they should be. We get caught up in messaging. But we have to keep things simple and show up,” Barker said. 

Those basics include regular meetings of Democratic neighborhood groups year round. Barker added that a change at the top of the ticket had an impact.

“The volunteer uptick was noticeable,” Barker said, since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race. “We probably got 200 new signups within two weeks, mostly women who wanted to be a part of this. People who saw themselves reflected in the candidate.”

Charlie Wishman, president of the Iowa Federation of Labor AFL-CIO—which represents 42,000 members of 280 Iowa unions—said Iowa’s fallen off the national radar in the past decade as it became more and more of a Republican stronghold. But polling of the state showed a closer contest between Harris and Donald Trump this November than some anticipated, or at least close enough for Iowa’s congressional races to seem more competitive.

“People forget that Iowa has a history as a purple state. I think Iowans have always believed in it, but now Iowans are making believers out of everyone else,” Wishman said.