Republicans maintain control in Iowa, see small gains on historic majorities

Despite some Democratic wins, Republicans carried the night. They maintain control of the Iowa Legislature and congressional seats.

Going into Tuesday, Iowa Democrats had a lot to be excited about. A list of winnable seats in Des Moines. Two seats in Congress labeled “toss-ups.” And an Iowa Poll that suggested big wins for Democrats.

But with a few exceptions as the results came in, Iowa Democrats’ night deflated.

State Legislature: Democrats lose more seats but win a few tough fights

If Democrats had one victory last night, it was unseating state Sen. Brad Zaun of Des Moines. Zaun was a key member of the Republican caucus in the Senate. But he was ousted early in the evening by Democratic challenger Matt Blake in the suburban district where voter backlash against the state’s abortion ban and school vouchers soured them on the longtime incumbent Republican. But while Democrats ousted Zaun, Republicans defeated Nate Boulton, a leader in the Senate who was in consideration for leadership. 

The other pickup for Democrats was Daniel Gosa taking a seat left by Rep. Luana Stoltenberg of Davenport, who decided not to seek office. Republicans did not field a candidate in this race.

At the end of the night Republicans gained a net of three seats in the Iowa House. Going into the election, Republicans ran the Iowa House of Representatives with 64 seats to Democrats’ 36. Republicans unseated Rep. Molly Buck of Ankeny, Rep. Sue Cahill of Marshalltown, Rep. Sharon Sue Steckman of Mason City, and Rep. Charles Isenhart of Dubuque. 

Democratic challenger Matt Blake unseated state Sen. Brad Zaun. (courtesy of Matt Blake)

Some races remain tight, but barring any changes in potential recounts, the new House margin will continue the Republican Party’s majority, 67 to 33.

Similarly, the Iowa Senate remains in Republican hands. Democrats hoped to net enough seats to gain the ability to hold up nominees. As of Wednesday morning, the party had not reached that threshold. Going into the election, Republicans held a 34 to 16 majority in the Iowa Senate. In addition to Boulton, Republicans unseated Sen. Eric Giddens of Cedar Falls. 

Barring any recounts, the new Senate margin will continue the Republican Party’s majority, 35 to 15.

Trump takes Iowa for the third time

From the top, former president Donald Trump carried Iowa, according to The Associated Press. Over the weekend, an Iowa Poll made the state seem within Vice President Kamala Harris’ grasp. But in the end, the outlier poll was just that. 

Trump locked down Iowa’s six Electoral College votes for the third time in a row. In 2016, 800,983 Iowans voted for him, 51% of the vote or a 9-point margin. In 2020, 897,672 Iowans voted for him, 53% of the vote or an 8-point margin. 

As of Wednesday morning, Trump carried the state with 55% of the vote—a 13 point lead—with two counties still unreported, according to the unofficial results. All results go through a certification process to become official. The outcomes are unlikely to change significantly.

A Nunn rerun for Iowa’s 3rd

Republican US Rep. Zach Nunn won reelection to Iowa’s 3rd District seat in the U.S. House, according to The Associated Press. His race against Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam was highly competitive, the site of much national spending by both parties. 

According to the unofficial results, Nunn carried 213,625 votes—52% of the vote.

Nunn flipped the district for Republicans by narrowly overtaking two-term US Rep. Cindy Axne in 2022. And he faced steep odds this year in a district that had a registered Democrat advantage and Des Moines suburbs filled with women frustrated over his support of an abortion ban. It was forecasted a “toss-up.” His win over Baccam further cements his district and future in the House. 

On Wednesday morning, Baccam conceded with a statement calling his candidacy an honor.

“While this is not the outcome we wanted, the fight for a better Iowa must continue. We still know it’s not okay for politicians to tell women what to do with their bodies, we know there’s still work to do to lower costs, and we have to make sure Iowans can retire with dignity by protecting Social Security and Medicare,” Baccam said. “Thank you to everyone who stood with me in this race.”

Miller-Meeks narrowly leads, though IA-01 still not called

For the second time in a row, US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ fate in southeast Iowa will be a nailbiter. Miller-Meeks declared her narrow victory Tuesday night with one Republican-leaning county not reporting. 

According to the unofficial results, Miller-Meeks secured 203,899 votes. Her opponent Democrat Christina Bohannan got 203,486. That’s a difference of 413 votes, or  0.1 percentage points. As of Wednesday morning, The Associated Press had not called the race. 

Back in 2020, Miller-Meeks won the seat after a long recount process with an ending six vote margin. Two years later, she won reelection by a substantial 20,000 votes. Despite Miller-Meeks’ better odds in 2022 and 2024, the district was also forecasted as a “toss-up.”