Are Democrats Getting Overconfident About A Blue Wave?

Democrats’ growing talk of a coming blue wave in November could backfire. The Democrats’ winning of special elections have fueled more talk about the anticipated blue wave. Even in the special elections that Democrats have lost, they are encouraged by the Republicans’ reduced margins. However, Democrats must beware of over confidence, particularly if it impacts turnout. Complacency could lead to catastrophe.

We need look back no further than 2016 to see how Democrats turnout was diminished in part by a belief that Clinton would easily defeat Trump for the presidency. Nearly all the polls showed Clinton winning and Democrats were totally caught flat-footed by the outcome.

There are some distressing signs that the chances of a Democratic blue wave in the November mid-terms is shrinking. The latest average April generic congressional polling has fallen from the December 2017 highs. The generic congressional polls showed as much as a 13-point spread between Democrats and Republicans in December. In December, 49% of voters indicated they would vote for Democrats while only 36% would vote for Republicans. The latest April polls show that margin has decreased to just 6 points. If the election were held today, voter support for Democrats stands at 45% vs. 39% for Republicans.

Democrats still lead in the polls, but it’s very disturbing that the margin has diminished so significantly in just four months. We have six months to go before the 2018 midterms; if that trend were to continue, the Democrats’ lead would evaporate.

There has been a great deal of predictions made about the percentage spread necessary for the Democrats to take back control of the House and Senate. It ranges from 7 to 11 points. The Cook Political Report suggests that Democrats will need a 7 point spread to take back control of the House.

According to a March report by the Brennan Center for Justice, Democrats must win by a margin of 11 percent to retake the House. The Brennan Center makes that prediction based on how successfully Republicans have gerrymandered districts in their favor.

“Because of maps designed to favor Republicans, Democrats would need to win by a nearly unprecedented nationwide margin in 2018 to gain control of the House of Representatives,” the Brennan Center says. “To attain a bare majority, Democrats would likely have to win the national popular vote by nearly 11 points. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have won by such an overwhelming margin in decades. Even a strong blue wave would crash against a wall of gerrymandered maps. As of mid-March, Democrats held an average lead of nearly eight percentage points, 48-40. Based on historical election results, a lead of this magnitude should net Democrats around 30 additional seats — comfortably more than the 24 they need to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Because of gerrymandering, however, that is no longer the case. Even the court-ordered redrawing of Pennsylvania’s congressional map will only improve Democrats’ chances slightly.”

Whether Cook or the Brennan Center is correct, the shrinking Democratic margin over Republicans in national polls should be a wake-up call. The blue wave isn’t inevitable and Democrats can’t afford to be complacent or take anything for granted. Democrats underestimated Donald Trump once before and paid the ultimate price. We must act like we are 6 points behind rather than ahead at this point. Democrats must redouble their efforts and maintain the passion and energy through November or the blue wave could become a blue ripple.

by Rick Smith
Posted 5/1/18