Governor Terry Branstad and legislative Republicans will wield full control over the executive and legislative branches of Iowa government come next January. Democrats lost their majority in the Iowa Senate, which they’ve held since 2006, as early returns showed Senators Mike Gronstal, Chris Brase and Brian Schoenjahn losing their reelection efforts. That bumps Democrats down to 23 seats, and Republicans up to 26, with one independent (and this is assuming Democrats win the Joe Seng Davenport seat in the December special election, which is very likely). However, early indications show that Democrats are losing in seats even thought to be safe, so that Republican majority may grow substantially.
[Update: It appears Democrats have lost six or seven seats, and are down to 18 or 19 seats overall. Mike Gronstal, Mary Jo Wilhelm, Brian Schoenjahn, Steve Sodders, Chris Brase and Tom Courtney all lost. Rich Taylor’s race remains very close.]
This is the first time Republicans have held total control since the 1990s.
Republicans will be extremely pleased to have captured at least three Democratic seats overall tonight. Former Republican Senator David Johnson split with the party this summer over Donald Trump and will likely remain an independent next session. He opposes the Republican line on Medicaid, water quality and education spending, so by controlling 26 seats the party can essentially ignore him.
It’s unclear yet if Democrats will pick up any seats in the House. It seems certain they will not get a net win of eight to take control of the chamber.
Tonight’s results could vastly change the course of Iowa politics and policies for years to come. When Republicans took complete control of state governments in the wave year of 2010, like in Wisconsin, they were not shy in moving their states in a sharp rightward shift. It’s unclear what exactly Speaker Linda Upmeyer and Senate Majority Leader Bill Dix will prioritize, considering the campaigns their candidates ran this year were light on policy proposals. It’s also yet to be seen what the dynamic between the Republican legislative leaders and Governor Branstad will be like. Will Branstad take the lead on major legislative initiatives, or will the House and Senate dictate terms of the debate?
Tonight’s outcome has been many years in the making. The nonpartisan redistricting map produced in 2011 was always going to be difficult for Senate Democrats. Large concentrations of the state’s Democratic voters were placed in a handful of districts, while the swing districts in more rural areas mostly had slight Republican registration advantages.
For three cycles in a row, Democrats tried to hang on to a narrow 26-24 majority, with no room for error. They succeeded against difficult odds in 2012 and 2014, but repeated missed opportunities gave the party no cushion for this presidential year, in which the political winds in Iowa made it feel more like a tough midterm election.
Democrats will have their chance to retake control or force the Senate into a tie in 2018, with at least two key pick-up contests in Sioux City and Ottumwa. But having to pick up any more than three will likely make that a multi-cycle endeavor.
With Gronstal headed to defeat tonight, Senate Democrats will need to quickly choose their new leader. There is no obvious replacement, though current Senate President Pam Jochum will probably have first consideration.
A December 27th special election is planned to replace Joe Seng, who passed away in September. It’s a heavily Democratic district, but Republicans may still make a play for it.
This post will be updated as more results come in.
by Pat Rynard
Posted 11/8/16
I begged John Hulsizer to let me put him on the ballot the last week of petitioning. His only headline was to inform the district that he was going to take a job out of state and sit this one out. He had a good showing anyway. Iowa is now a red state. 2018 is all about Democrats fighting for control of US senate seats in Red States and fighting for state legislatures in states they think will help them draw the Us house districts which will take all of the money everywhere but Iowa. Today, 2018 and forever…Iowa is a Red State!
Mike Gronstal, staller-in-chief is gone. That’s a good thing.
The GOP can now address many issues that the Dems have stopped. My first priority is voting laws. Things like the following should be considered.
Voter photo ID
Shorten early voting period
Tighten absentee voting requirements to eliminate abuse
Eliminate straight party ticket voting
Driver licenses should identify immigration status
Why do you want to make voting harder when voting fraud is a non issue?
Josh, You are wrong. When I was working for the Romney campaign, I went house to house in Cedar Rapids asking for votes for Mr. Romney. I was told, more than once, that their family members who lived and worked out of state (in once case, the Dakotas) came to Iowa on the weekend to visit them in order to use their children’s Cedar Rapids address and vote here. The reason was at least Iowa is considered a “swing state” and our vote could make a difference here where it won’t in our home state. That should never be happening. So its not just about illegals being registered to vote. Its also about U.S. citizens manipulating election results.