These Democratic Legislators Need To Help Boost Turnout In Their Districts

Now that we’re several days into early voting, clear trends are beginning to emerge around the state. Early voting and absentee requests in targeted swing legislative districts are nearly twice that as non-targeted districts. This is to be expected to an extent, as a larger effort with additional staff, direct mail and candidate time is done in the districts that will determine who controls the Senate and House majority.

But when you start to think about these numbers on a statewide basis, the low early turnout numbers coming out of Iowa’s most-Democratic legislative districts is a bit concerning.

There’s a few things to keep in mind, of course. Many of these legislators from safe districts have been very busy on the campaign trail, just in other swing districts outside their own to help their fellow Democratic members and candidates. Some of the senators aren’t on the ballot this year. It also obviously takes more work and time to sign up the 17,401 Democrats in Janet Petersen’s district than it does the 10,439 Democrats in Mike Gronstal’s. And it’s largely the job of the coordinated campaign to turn out these Democrat-heavy areas of the state.

Still, it’s a little odd to see that a full 23.4% of Democrats in Liz Mathis’ district have signed up for absentee ballots, while neighboring senate and house districts represented by Wally Horn, Rob Hogg, Liz Bennett, Art Staed, Kristin Running-Marquardt and Todd Taylor are all hovering around just 10%.

Here’s a list of all the legislative districts with a Democratic incumbent and the percentage of registered Democrats who have requested an absentee (asterisks next to people who have competitive races):

Many of the targeted incumbent Democratic state senators lead the list, with Gronstal, Mathis, Brase and Danielson topping the rest. Both Gronstal and Charlie McConkey of Council Bluffs are benefitting from their joint ground game. Scott Ourth is doing very well considering he doesn’t have a competitive state senate race above him helping out. Patti Ruff is a little further down the list than you’d like to see considering her opponent has apparently started running TV ads.

The bottom of the list is rounded out by mostly Polk and Linn County districts. The Cedar Rapids ones were likely impacted by the flooding last week that disrupted many residents’ lives, along with the Linn County Auditor’s office being in the closed-off flood zone. Regardless, both Polk and Linn County incumbents need to activate some of their local teams to help push these numbers up.

Now here’s a list of the legislative districts represented by a Republican that are competitive this year (see my earlier list), along with a few extra ones tossed in:

Of the top five, only Jennifer Konfrst doesn’t have a competitive senate race helping her, making those numbers in Polk County all the more impressive. It’s rather disconcerting to see the Northeast Iowa races so far down the list, with Jan Heikes’ race at only 15.8% of their Democrats signed up for early vote.

Obviously, the emphasis right now is on the swing districts, and for people who can travel to them, that’s where volunteers should go. But for local volunteers who typically work their own precincts? These legislators need to call up their district crew of volunteers and get them out on the doors more. It’s crucial for Hillary Clinton’s chances to win Iowa this year. Plus, they need to ramp up their local base to get prepared for the 2018 fight. Because even though many of these legislators live in safe districts, they won’t get many of their priorities done if Republicans win the Governor’s office yet again. For those Democratic legislators sitting on a pile of good Democratic precincts, it’s time to turn out the vote.

by Pat Rynard
Posted 10/4/16