Amie here. Harvest time is upon us, and Iowa farmers are supposed to have the third-largest harvest on record.
Yet it all amounts to a hill of beans (literally) if nobody’s buying them.
Iowa soybean farmers—and those in the wider ag industry—are hurting in a big way, and they’re not getting any relief with President Donald Trump’s continued trade war with China.
It all started with the initial trade war Trump initiated in 2018:
- Before then, the US shipped an average of $12.8 billion worth of soybeans to China.
- After Trump imposed tariffs on foreign imports from China in January of 2018, that dropped to $4.7 billion, a more than 60% decrease, according to the American Soybean Association.
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Since May, after Trump threatened different tariff levels on the country, that dropped to zero. China is now buying soybeans mostly from Brazil.
Net cash farm income has plummeted 40% for soybeans, to the lowest level it’s been in 15 years. And that’s before this year’s harvest.
It’s not like there’s another buyer that’s comparable to China, which is by far the largest market for soy—they consume 61% of the world’s total soy per year on average. The next closest buyer is the European Union, and they only buy around 11%.
Iowa’s definitely affected by this—we produced nearly 600 million bushels of soybeans in 2024, or around 14% of America’s total soybean export crop. There’s always some that’s going unsold, usually around a third of the crop. But up to 60% of last year’s crop is estimated to go unsold, according to the Iowa Soybean Association.
And this year, nobody knows.
I mean, you have the president of the Iowa Farmers Union saying local elevators—where farmers sell and store their crops—are in some cases refusing to take soybeans because of the uncertainty. Prices are down, in some cases up to $2 a bushel, from the same time last year, while inputs—things like equipment, fertilizer, etc.—are up.
Even if you’re not farming, that hits Iowa hard. A fifth of our workforce is employed in the broader agriculture sector, accounting for 22% of our state’s economy.
And we’re already hurting: The Iowa Farm Bureau found in November that around 11,400 Iowa workers have been laid off across farm equipment manufacturers, food processors, and other agriculture-related businesses.
That’s $1.5 billion of the state’s overall economy, gone.
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At John Deere alone, 1,600 workers were laid off in 2024 because of the first ag downturn, according to the company. And they think they’ll lose $600 million just because of this year’s tariffs alone.
Already this year (I added it up from the Iowa WARN Act site), 457 workers have been laid off at Deere plants around the state.
And just this week, Deere announced another 101 Waterloo workers and 40 Ankeny workers will be laid off next month.
There’s around $66 billion earmarked in farm safety net money from the “Big Beautiful Bill,” but that’s a bandage on this larger problem.
Farmers are, for the most part, pretty conservative, and pretty reliable Trump voters. Many of the farm associations are regular donors to Republicans. Yet Trump’s just slow walking a deal—last I saw, he’s pushed more China trade talks to mid-November.
What should President Trump be doing to help Iowa farmers? Email me.
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Amie Rivers
Newsletter Editor, Iowa Starting Line
Member, COURIER United (WGA East)
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Union rallies for Fort Madison prison workers: Prison health care workers unionized with AFSCME Council 61 held a rally Wednesday against a proposal from the state that would outsource prison health care across Iowa. “Whenever we see privatization, it’s not about looking out for the good of citizens,” said Charlie Wishman, president of the Iowa Federation of Labor. “(This proposal by the State is) about introducing a profit motive into taking care of people.”
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Unemployment rate up in Iowa, nationally: The latest report from August shows Iowa unemployment rose by a tenth of a percentage, to 3.8%, up from 3.7% in July. Nationally, the rate also rose by a tenth of a percentage and now stands at 4.3%. The number of unemployed Iowans has risen by nearly 10,000 since last year. “Instead of focusing on job growth and fixing an economy that is the worst in the nation, Republican lawmakers have pursued tax cuts for corporations and the richest Iowans,” said Iowa House Democratic Leader Brian Meyer. “Today’s workforce report proves they’re abandoning Iowa’s workers.”
- Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol is still stalling a union contract a year into his tenure, despite more than 12,000 workers at nearly 650 Starbucks stores across the country voting to unionize.
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Trump’s tariffs are now increasing prices for things, which is increasing inflation, too.
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Immigration raids are ‘direct attacks on worker rights and safety,’ the nonprofit National Council for Occupational Safety and Health (COSH) said in a statement after ICE raids in Georgia and New York this month. “Immigration raids are not about safety or justice,” said Jessica Martinez, Executive Director of National COSH. “They are intentional tactics to undermine workers’ safety and rights and embolden employers to violate labor laws by silencing workers. We cannot allow ICE enforcement to become a weapon that strips workers of their rights and dignity.” Some workers are holding trainings on how to fight back against ICE at their workplace.
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Employers are lobbying to expand the H-2B visa program, which allows companies to hire migrant workers for temporary jobs (in part because the Trump administration is deporting so many of their workers). They’re asking to expand H-2B to year-round work like meatpacking, which EPI and others argue would lower wages around the country. “Temporary work under the H-2B program is harmful by design and in practice,” said Stuart Appelbaum, President of the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union (RWDSU), which represents thousands of meatpacking workers. “It forces workers to live in constant uncertainty, often in unstable and unsafe housing, and leaves workers vulnerable to abuse, setting up a situation where speaking up can mean losing their job or being sent out of the country.”
- Won a union: Twenty-four full- and part-time radiographers with American Ordnance in Middletown are now unionized with IAM Local 1010, after a vote of 15-4 to do so.
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Voting on a union: A total of 1,776 full- and part-time registered nurses and PRNs at Iowa Methodist Medical Center, Blank Children’s Hospital, Methodist West Hospital, and Iowa Lutheran Hospital in Des Moines vote Oct. 5-7 on whether to unionize with Teamsters Local 90. Sign a petition in support of the effort here.
- Starting up a union: Fifty full- and part-time workers at River Hills Community Health Center in Ottumwa refiled a petition to unionize Aug. 8 with River Hills United/Teamsters Local 90.
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John Deere in Waterloo is laying off 71 workers at Waterloo Works (Foundry) by Monday, and 101 workers at the East Donald Street site by Oct. 20. Read more here and here.
- Wells Fargo in West Des Moines is laying off 44 workers by Monday, 10 workers by Oct. 4, 10 workers by Oct. 18, and 12 workers by Nov. 14.
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Lennox Industries in Marshalltown is laying off 49 workers by Sept. 28. Read more here.
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The Quad City Times in Davenport is laying off 49 printing press workers by Sept. 29. Read more here.
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Winnebago Industries is closing and continuing to lay off, including one worker in Forest City by Sept. 29, three workers in Forest City by Oct. 10, and 26 workers in Charles City by Dec. 12. Read more here.
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Smurfit Westrock Company in Cedar Rapids is closing and laying off 100 workers by Oct. 4. Read more here.
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Maverik in Des Moines is laying off 100 workers at its corporate headquarters by Oct. 6. Read more here.
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Fox River Mills in Osage is closing, relocating to North Carolina, and laying off 105 workers by Oct. 10. Read more here.
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Thanks for reading. This newsletter was written by Amie Rivers. It was edited by Paula Solis.
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