Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek is narrowly leading Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa’s marquee U.S. Senate race. That’s according to an internal poll obtained by Semafor.
The survey, conducted for Turek’s campaign by the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group, polled 800 likely Iowa voters between Aug. 27 and 31 and found Turek ahead 46% to 42%, with Libertarian Thomas Laehn at 6% and 6% undecided. Turek led independents by eight percentage points and held a positive personal image—a net +14 favorable rate—while both Hinson (net -7) and President Trump (net -9) were underwater with Iowa voters, per the memo. It’s the second time this year that GSG has polled the race, finding the generic Republican had a +2 margin in the race back in June.
The campaign did not publicly release the poll. Though as a strategy, campaigns will release internal polling to shape coverage and shake loose donor money, not as neutral data. Most high quality, independent polls still show Hinson ahead.
The more complete picture is less rosy for Turek. Iowa’s most recent public, non-partisan poll — from Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media, conducted Aug. 31–Sept. 1 — found Hinson leading 50% to 45%. The polling average tracked by RealClearPolling puts Hinson ahead by nearly two points, and rates the race a toss-up.
“About six percent of voters in the Iowa poll are splitting their ticket to support both Republican Ashley Hinson for Senate and Democrat Rob Sand for Governor,” Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement accompanying their September poll. “Independent voters break for Sand over Lahn by a 12-point margin, 51% to 39%, while Turek leads Hinson by two among this group, 46% to 44%.”
In recent weeks, Turek has been working to court some of these split-ticketers by flagging his record of voting with Republicans, his willingness to work with President Donald Trump to secure the US-Mexico border, and the number of Iowa Republicans supporting him.
Whatever the exact margin, both camps agree it’s close — close enough that Hinson and Turek have agreed to meet for their first debate Oct. 7 on Iowa PBS, moderated by longtime Iowa Press host Kay Henderson. The race is a genuine toss-up in a state that voted for Trump by 10 points, which is itself part of the story: Turek’s camp is betting that anger over Medicaid cuts, tariff-driven farm losses and Iowa’s abortion ban can pull moderate and independent voters who don’t share the state’s Republican lean.
While one internal poll does not shake a race’s landscape, it adds more credibility to the idea that this race—key to Democrats hopes in the US Senate—is hotly contested.
