3 takeaways from Trump’s Iowa speech

The president made his first major 2026 pitch in Clive as his administration is roiled by two fatal shootings of US citizens by immigration agents in Minnesota.

CLIVE — Amid widespread dissatisfaction with his administration, President Donald Trump kicked off his party’s 2026 midterm campaign Tuesday with a rally where he claimed  victory over inflation and warned supporters that Republican losses in November would jeopardize his entire agenda.

“If we lose the midterms, you’ll lose so many of the things that we’re talking about, so many of the assets that we’re talking about, so many of the tax cuts that we’re talking about,” Trump told hundreds of supporters at the Horizon Events Center. 

The president acknowledged the historical difficulty incumbents face in midterm elections, but said he would campaign aggressively to maintain GOP control of Congress.

Iowa has emerged as critical for Republicans, with two of the state’s four congressional districts ranking among the most competitive in the country. With US Sen. Joni Ernst retiring and US Rep. Ashley Hinson running to replace her, a US Senate seat and another House seat are also in play. 

Trump announced he would make weekly visits to swing states ahead of the midterms, framing the election as a referendum on his first-year accomplishments. But with just 32% of Americans telling pollsters the country is better than a year ago, the president faces an uphill battle convincing voters his self-proclaimed “greatest first year” merits continued Republican control of Congress.

Here are three takeaways from his visit: 

Takeaway 1: It’s the economy, stupid.

Trump’s speech centered on an economic claim that recent polling suggests voters aren’t buying. The president declared inflation “defeated” and the economy “booming,” pointing to stock market highs and supposed tax benefits from his “One Big Beautiful Bill” legislation.

However, federal data tells a different story. The consumer price index, a key inflation indicator, grew to 2.7% in December as compared to the year before. That’s still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Trump’s tariffs have increased prices, but they’ve particularly hard on the agricultural sector. 2025 had more farm bankruptcies than any year since the COVID-19 pandemic shut down parts of the economy. KFF estimates that Medicaid enrollment in Iowa could drop by 90,000 by 2034. as a result of Congressional Republicans letting health care subsidies expire. Winter heating bills are expected to rise as much as 20%. Income growth is also down, with Iowa ranking 45th in the nation. 

A New York Times-Siena poll released last week found 57% of Americans believe Trump is focused on the wrong issues, while 51% say his policies have made life less affordable. 49 percent said the country was worse off than a year ago, compared with 32% who said it was better.

While consumer sentiment did see a January increase, that was after five straight months of downward movement, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index. Consumer sentiment stands 20% below a year ago.

Takeaway 2: Trump MIA on Minneapolis 

What Trump didn’t mention proved equally significant. Outside the venue, in a carved out “free speech zone,” hundreds gathered to protest the Trump administration’s aggressive and often violent immigration raids across the country, as well as federal immigration agents’ recent killings of US citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis. 

Pretti was fatally shot by Border Patrol agents on Saturday. Trump made no reference to either Pretti’s death or the Jan. 7 killing of Renee Good by ICE agents, both of which sparked national protests and bipartisan calls for investigation.

The only mention of Minneapolis came before his speech. Trump told Fox News he was attempting to “de-escalate a little bit” in Minnesota, even as hundreds of protesters gathered outside the Clive venue condemning his administration’s continued immigration tactics. While he said the shooting of Pretti in Minneapolis by Border Patrol agents was “very unfortunate,” he added “I don’t like that he had a gun.”

Takeaway 3: Trump wants to win back tariff-brused farmers 

If you were watching outside the Horizon Event Center, a crowd of red shirts walked in with slogans supporting year-round E15 ethanol production. 

Tariffs on agriculture goods collected $958 million in revenue through October. This increased input costs for farmers at a time when commodity prices are already in the ditch. While Trump did agree to farm relief payments, farmers have increasingly called for year-round E15 as a way of growing markets for their corn. 

E15 is a fuel blend containing 15% ethanol and 85% gasoline. Since 2005, the United States has required a minimum volume of corn-based ethanol blended into the nation’s fuel supply. A 10% blend is widely sold across the country. Year-round E15 is an attempt to require even higher levels of ethanol blended into the fuel supply, thereby creating more value for farmers. 

However, the US House passed a final appropriations bill last week that disappointed many in the industry as it did not include provisions that expanded E15 gasoline access.

In Clive, Trump touted trade deals and promised to support year-round E15 ethanol production. His administration recently issued $12 billion in farm relief payments, deemed necessary after China halted soybean and corn purchases in response to Trump’s tariff policies.