Nunn v. Konfrst: Poll shows dead heat in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District

Update: Following publication, Iowa Staring Line received screenshots of Public Policy Polling’s survey. The firm surveyed respondents on the favorability of both Democrats Jennifer Konfrst and Sarah Trone Garriott, how they would fare in a primary with one another, and how they would fare as the Democratic nominee in a general election against incumbent US Rep. Zach Nunn. The topline memo given to the media by Konfrst’s campaign did not include results from questions posed about Trone Garriott.

A new poll released this week shows Democrat Jennifer Konfrst tied with Republican incumbent Zach Nunn in Iowa’s competitive 3rd Congressional District. The race is shaping up to be one of Iowa and the country’s most competitive races for 2026. 

The firm Public Policy Polling surveyed 717 Iowa voters in mid-September and asked “if the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Jennifer Konfrst and Republican Zach Nunn, who would you vote for?” 

44% said Konfrst, 44% said Nunn, and 12% said “not sure.”

“This poll confirms what we’re already hearing on the ground: Iowans are ready for a working-class candidate with a proven record of results who will take on Zach Nunn and his 100% MAGA agenda that raises prices on our families,” Konfrst, the former minority leader in the Iowa House, said in a statement.

The poll also found Nunn has high unfavorability among respondents at 47% unfavorable, 37% favorable, with 16% unsure. Konfrst attributed this to his recent support for Medicaid cuts.

The topline memo released by the Konfrst campaign about the poll did not include results from questions about State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, who is also running in the Democratic primary. Respondents were asked about Trone Garriott’s favorability, whether they would pick her in a primary against Konfrst, and whether they would pick her in a general election against Nunn. Those results were not included in the memo.

The poll also asked respondents about whether they viewed several other office holders favorably or unfavorably. President Donald Trump was underwater, with 50% of those surveyed viewing him unfavorably. He was second only to Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who 54% of respondents viewed unfavorably. 

Twenty-four percent of respondents gave Konfrst a favorable rating, while 17% viewed her unfavorably. She had a comparatively large “not sure” rate at 59%. 

The poll also asked about the favorability of State Auditor Rob Sand, who’s running for governor, and found that 46% of respondents viewed him favorably, compared to 19% who said unfavorable, and 35% who were “not sure.”

The pool of respondents was 52% female, 46% male. It was split 34%-34% Republican and Democrat, with 32% identifying as “independent.” It was 95% white. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they voted for President Donald Trump in 2024, while 44% voted for Democrat Kamala Harris. 

The 2026 primary will be on June 2.