Top House Democrat predicts Miller-Meeks will lose in 2026

National Democrats see an opportunity to flip Iowa’s 1st Congressional District and take congressional control away from the Trump administration. 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently took aim at US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa, predicting her defeat in the upcoming election cycle while highlighting Democratic momentum following a recent special election victory in the state.

“In a conservative part of a swing Iowa district currently represented by Representative Miller-Meeks — one of the most unpopular Congress members in the country…— in the state Senate district that Donald Trump had won in November of 2024, the Democrat won,” Jeffries said Wednesday during event decrying the Trump tariffs’ impacts on the economy. 

“ Trump had won that state Senate District in Iowa in January … by 21 points. Democrat wins by four: that’s a 25 point over performance.”

This year, Iowa has had two special elections for Iowa House seats. Jeffries was pointing to Democrat Mike Zimmer of DeWitt’s special election win in Clinton County in January. The seat which was vacated by Republican Lt. Gov. Chris Cournoyer will now be represented by Democrat. His term will run through 2026. 

The other special election was in Lee County — which went for Trump by even higher margins than Clinton. The seat went to Republican Blaine Watkins, but Democrats narrowed the margin significantly, as reported by Bleeding Heartland. 

Special elections are not predictive of November election outcomes. But as Democrats gear up for more favorable conditions in the 2026 midterms, the Democratic successes in Trump districts was heralded as a sign that Democrats might have different luck. So much so that Jeffries called his shot regarding Miller-Meeks:

“ She’ll be gone after the next election,” Jeffries said.

Miller-Meeks has faced extraordinarily tight races in her congressional career. In 2020, she won her seat by just six votes after a lengthy recount process. Her 2024 reelection was similarly narrow, as she prevailed by only 799 votes against Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan in a district that Trump carried by over 35,000 votes.

The congresswoman’s struggles extend beyond electoral politics. She recently lost her bid for House Republican Conference secretary, being eliminated in the first round of voting as Republicans selected US Rep. Erin Houchin of Indiana for the leadership position.

National Democrats have already targeted Miller-Meeks ahead of 2026, with House Majority Forward already launching digital advertising campaigns against her in January 2025. The ads tie her to controversial Trump cabinet nominees and policy positions that could raise consumer prices. 

And last week, Emily’s List, which funds candidates who support reproductive rights, targeted three of Iowa’s four congressional districts, naming them “as top targets for defeat.” They pointed to Miller-Meeks’ co-sponsorship of the Life at Conception Act and her “A+” rating from Susan B. Anthony List, a group that wants to end abortion in the United States.

Miller-Meeks has been among the long list of congressional Republicans who headed the the NRCC chief’s advice not to hold in-person town halls.

As Democrats look to reclaim House seats in the midterms, Miller-Meeks’ historically razor-thin margins make her district vulnerable and a prime pickup opportunity as Democrats look to build a pathway to the majority.