Potential Scenarios For Tonight’s Iowa Elections

On By Pat Rynard

It’s here. It’s finally, finally here. Iowans are headed to the polls this morning, and there’s already reports of long lines and enthusiastic new voters registering at their voting place. After high-profile campaigns that have lasted an intense 16 months or more, most candidates, volunteers, staffers and rank-and-file Democrats and Republicans are just eager for it to be done – and to see who wins. Democrats have become cautiously optimistic in the past week, though memories of devastating election nights in 2016, 2014 and 2010 weigh heavy on their minds. But there are very legitimate reasons to feel good about […]

These Counties Have Already Surpassed Their 2014 Early Vote

On By Pat Rynard

Iowa is on pace to easily surpass its final 2014 early vote totals before Election Day. Democrats’ numbers are looking particularly strong, pulling away by a strong margin from Republicans in the last week. There are 35,192 more registered Democrats who have voted early than registered Republicans. At this point in 2014, Democrats held only a 6,829 lead. Let’s dive in to all the numbers, including a look at what counties are turning out strongly for either party (as always, you can look at my full county spreadsheet here). First, here’s the current statewide early vote totals: Requested Voted Dem […]

Which Iowa Counties Are (And Aren’t) Turning Out Big For 2018

On By Pat Rynard

Thousands of Iowans are casting their ballots every single day as we enter the final 20 days of the campaign. Democrats started out with a big lead, but it’s recently narrowed to what the party has typically seen in the past. We’re now at a pretty decent place to start digging into the numbers more (also see our previous post on legislative districts’ early vote). Republicans’ absentee request mailer caused big daily jumps for their totals over the past week, but that’s largely stabilized now. Looking back at the 2014 midterm early vote numbers is still comparing apples and oranges […]

Rod Blum Closes Ugly With Race-Baiting Ad

On By Pat Rynard

Rod Blum isn’t very subtle with his closing message for his reelection campaign. A new TV ad that appears to have started running today repeatedly hits challenger Abby Finkenauer for saying, “I legislate with my heart too much.” But it’s the first few seconds that will grab people’s attention and could cause backlash. Right after the ad shows Finkenauer saying the line on the floor of the Iowa House, an image of three heavily-tattooed Hispanic men pop up on screen over her: Blum claims that Finkenauer “put criminal illegal aliens back on Iowa streets” while the image of MS-13 gang […]

NextGen Launches Major Digital Effort To Turn Out Young Iowans

On By Pat Rynard

NextGen Iowa is launching a major digital advertising campaign that goes through the final weeks of the election, targeting young Iowans to encourage them to vote on November 6. The $162,000 online expenditure in Iowa is part of a national $4 million effort from the progressive organization that is focusing on youth turnout this year. The ad blitz kicks off on October 15 and is targeted at over 170,000 Iowans between the ages of 18 and 35. They will run on a wide array of websites, social media sites and video services, including Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr, Reddit, Hulu, Vevo, […]

Abby Finkenauer Breaks Another Iowa Record With $1.6 Million Quarter

On By Pat Rynard

In case you were wondering if the news could get even worse for vulnerable incumbent Congressman Rod Blum, you have your answer: it can. Abby Finkenauer, his Democratic opponent, will report raising a cool $1.6 million for the 3rd Quarter reporting period, her campaign tells Starting Line. That more than doubles her previous quarter’s haul of $765,000, which was already an all-time record for an Iowa Democratic congressional candidate for one quarter. It comes on the heels of several impressive quarterly reports announced today from Democratic challenger candidates from around the country. Both Amy McGrath in Kentucky’s 6th District and […]

Democrats’ Digital Ad Strategy Lagging Behind Republicans’ In Iowa

On By Pat Rynard

Earlier this year, Facebook began making public every political ad that is run on their platform as part of their effort to create a more transparent process following criticism of Russian influence in the 2016 election. You can now easily find every ad deemed “political” in their Ad Archive, including those currently running, by searching for any candidate’s name. Starting Line pored over every ad run by or about Iowa’s statewide, congressional and state legislative candidates. One consistent theme stuck out: Republicans are running far more creative and comprehensive ad campaigns designed at both persuasion and rallying their base; Democrats […]

Poll Shows Trump’s Trade War May Sink His Closest Iowa Ally

On By Pat Rynard

When Donald Trump visited Iowa in July this year, he tossed “Make Farmers Great Again” hats into a crowd outside Dubuque and thanked Congressman Rod Blum for support of his agenda. Blum responded by praising Trump’s handling of the trade wars and tariffs. “Thank you for having political courage to renegotiate these trade deals,” Blum told Trump. “You’ve taken some heat for it in the short-term, but in the long-run, the farmers, the manufacturers, the employers are all going to better off.” As we suspected at the time, Blum may come to deeply regret those words. An ongoing poll from the New […]

Federal Funding For Cedar Rapids Flood Wall Is Not As Advertised

On By Pat Rynard

The $117 million in federal funding for the Cedar Rapids flood wall is not as was originally publicly promised, Starting Line has confirmed from multiple sources. Last month, city leaders were informed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers that $41 million of the federal funding that was announced in July will instead be a low-interest loan that the city must repay over 30 years. That would present a significant increase in costs to the city to build the wall needed to prevent against future catastrophic floods. Mayor Brad Hart and City Manager Jeff Pomeranz wrote to Congressman Rod Blum […]

How Not To Deal With The Press, A Rod Blum Example

On By Pat Rynard

Congressman Rod Blum does not seem to like reporters. Like, he really, really does not like them. At least that’s the case for two Iowa reporters that Blum has clearly built up a hatred for after they asked him tough questions or ran investigative stories on his businesses. He lashed out at both this week, in one case creating a negative story for himself out of nothing. The first incident wasn’t that big a deal, it just highlights how he holds grudges. On Wednesday, Blum lashed out at KCRG and their reporter, Josh Scheinblum, who inadvertently gave Blum his most […]