Republican incumbent David Young’s vote in favor of the AHCA bill makes his reelection much more difficult, the country’s top congressional ranking website reported this morning. The Cook Political Report moved Young’s 3rd District from Likely Republican to Lean Republican in their new ranking of the country’s swing seats. His was one of twenty Republican-held seats that Cook downgraded for the party due to the vote on the very unpopular piece of legislation.
“House Republicans’ willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17 percent of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is consistent with past scenarios that have generated a midterm wave,” the Cook Political Report wrote. “Not only did dozens of Republicans in marginal districts just hitch their names to an unpopular piece of legislation, Democrats just received another valuable candidate recruitment tool. In fact, Democrats aren’t so much recruiting candidates as they are overwhelmed by a deluge of eager newcomers, including doctors and veterans in traditionally red seats who have no political record for the GOP to attack – almost a mirror image of 2010.”
It’s particularly noteworthy since Cook is typically very cautious on incumbent races, even moreso for ones that don’t have a clear challenger yet. So for Young to have won reelection by 14 points just a few months ago to be at just “Lean Republican” now should be worrisome for the two-term Republican.
So far Pete D’Alessandro, a longtime Iowa political operative and one of Bernie Sanders’ top Iowa staffers, has formed an exploratory committee, and Anna Ryon, who works in Iowa’s consumer protection office, launched her campaign in March. Several other Central Iowa Democrats, including real estate company president Theresa Greenfield, are considering a run as well.
by Pat Rynard