Republican incumbent David Young’s vote in favor of the AHCA bill makes his reelection much more difficult, the country’s top congressional ranking website reported this morning. The Cook Political Report moved Young’s 3rd District from Likely Republican to Lean Republican in their new ranking of the country’s swing seats. His was one of twenty Republican-held seats that Cook downgraded for the party due to the vote on the very unpopular piece of legislation.

“House Republicans’ willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17 percent of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is consistent with past scenarios that have generated a midterm wave,” the Cook Political Report wrote. “Not only did dozens of Republicans in marginal districts just hitch their names to an unpopular piece of legislation, Democrats just received another valuable candidate recruitment tool. In fact, Democrats aren’t so much recruiting candidates as they are overwhelmed by a deluge of eager newcomers, including doctors and veterans in traditionally red seats who have no political record for the GOP to attack – almost a mirror image of 2010.”

It’s particularly noteworthy since Cook is typically very cautious on incumbent races, even moreso for ones that don’t have a clear challenger yet. So for Young to have won reelection by 14 points just a few months ago to be at just “Lean Republican” now should be worrisome for the two-term Republican.

So far Pete D’Alessandro, a longtime Iowa political operative and one of Bernie Sanders’ top Iowa staffers, has formed an exploratory committee, and Anna Ryon, who works in Iowa’s consumer protection office, launched her campaign in March. Several other Central Iowa Democrats, including real estate company president Theresa Greenfield, are considering a run as well.

 

by Pat Rynard
Posted 5/5/17

One thought on “Uh Oh: David Young’s Seat Endangered After AHCA Vote, Ranking Group Says

  1. I think Iowa Democrats should start running ads now to label republicans like Blum and Young. There’s no challenger yet that they can respond to. It’s early enough in the process that if Democrats can sway public opinion of these candidates now, those ill feelings may stick for the folks who don’t otherwise pay much attention until right before an election. And with the airwaves free of other political ads, it won’t be as likely to get drowned out.

    Imagine an ad with a mother w/ a pre-existing condition talking about her reliance on the ACA. Video of her going about her day (making breakfast, playing with her kids, getting ready for work), all while she narrates about the impact of her illness and her fear of losing health insurance. Or parents of a child cancer survivor talking about their fear that the cancer could return and bankrupt them. Imagine an ad that ends with the patient saying that, for David Young or Rod Blum or even Steve King, the only value their life had was to provide a tax break for an already obscenely wealthy person. It may sound harsh, but that’s the reality for millions of people in this country. They’re scared to death, and the ads this upcoming cycle need to reflect that because for people who have good insurance, that’s a hard concept to understand. Sorry for the long fake commercial, but messaging and videos are kind of what I do 🙂

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