Where The Early Vote Stands On Election Day

Voters streamed into auditor’s offices across Iowa on Monday, getting their vote in one day before Election Day arrived. Long lines were seen in Polk, Black Hawk, Johnson, Linn and Scott counties. Voters who still had their absentee ballots hopefully brought them into auditor’s offices or planned on taking them to the polls – sending them in at this point means they won’t arrive on time.

The Secretary of State’s office released their usual early vote report Monday afternoon. In 2012 they also gave an update on Election Day, so it’s possible we get one more bit of information on the all-important early vote statistics.

Here’s where we’re at now, compared to this point in 2012:

	Voted Now	Voted Then	Diff
Dem	260,222	281,966	92%
GOP	218,204	215,439	101%
NP	149,816	174,850	86%

Barack Obama won Iowa in 2012 by 90,000 votes. Democrats lead in the early vote this year by 42,018. They led in 2012 at this point by 66,527. Considering the early vote made up 43% of the vote in 2012, you can see how Hillary Clinton can still pull off a win in Iowa with these numbers, it would just be very, very close. And from the numbers that Starting Line has seen, Democrats’ early voters are much more likely to be sporadic-voting people (as in, they don’t always turn out) than the Republican early voters.

But the other important thing to consider is the No Party voters. These broke well for Democrats in 2012 in the early vote (Obama won the early vote registration comparison – Democrats to Republicans – by about 66,000, but he won the actual early vote by nearly 90,000. So clearly the No Party voters favored him as well). So to have them only at 86% could be concerning for Democrats.

However, it’s not all great news for Republicans. The Iowa GOP constantly touted their increased focus on the early vote this year. And yet in a cycle where Iowa is becoming more red thanks to Donald Trump on the ballot, they’ve only increased their early vote total by 3,000. Yes, the Democratic advantage has been reduced by about 24,000, and that’s not nothing. But I think they would like to see an even bigger advantage. Republicans may have had a great plan and their field staffers may have done their best, but this is what happens when the Trump campaign doesn’t invest early on to the ground game.

The final result may be determined by how independent voters break, and recent polling doesn’t show that going too well for Democrats.

Another interesting number to look at is the return rates. Democratic insiders played off the very poor early numbers in September by insisting it was all part of a strategy designed at hitting voters at exactly the right time. Collect a bunch of absentee ballot requests early and you risk the voters forgetting they asked for one, making it harder to get those ballots turned in. It seems like that strategy worked out, at least in the return rates.

	Reqested	Returned	Return %
Dem	283,686	260,222	92%
GOP	233,674	218,204	93%
NP	165,623	149,816	90%

For comparison’s sake, at this point in 2012 Democrats had a return rate of 90%, Republicans were at 94% and No Party’s at 88%. So both Democrats and No Party returns are better. Even an increase in the return rate by two points is no small matter. 2% of this year’s Democratic numbers is 5,674 votes.

The other big advantage of a better return rate is that your volunteers can focus more on getting people out on Election Day, instead of having to chase down absentee ballots that never come in.

Will the different strategy all even out in the end? Who the hell knows. But here’s the bottom line: Iowa Democrats’ ground game has put Hillary Clinton in a position to win on Election Day. Not by the same margin that Barack Obama did in 2012, not by any means. Swing voters in Eastern Iowa moving to the right may decide the day, but at least there’s a decent chance for a Clinton victory, despite the dour polls.

Now let’s take one last look at the legislative districts. Here’s how early voting finished in the senate districts:

District	Senator/Rep	Ds Voted	Rs Voted	Diff
SD 08	Gronstal/Dawson	4132	3460	672
SD 26	Wilhelm/Brown	4415	4096	319
SD 28	Breitbach/Heikes	4751	5129	-378
SD 30	Danielson/Sadler	6023	4734	1289
SD 32	Schoenjahn/Johnson	4229	3887	342
SD 34	Mathis/Gadehla	5456	4059	1397
SD 36	Sodders/Edler	4556	4075	481
SD 42	Taylor/Graber	5237	4086	1151
SD 46	Brase/Lofgren	5133	4730	403
SD 48	Zumbach/Peterson	3579	3767	-188

Mathis and Danielson maintain their huge, likely insurmountable lead in voting in their districts. Gronstal still leads by a good amount in his, while the other competitive districts are likely too close for comfort.

Tons of volunteer efforts have been sent into the swing legislative districts for the final push. Here’s how much the Democratic early vote advantage changed in each district from Friday to today:

District	Senator/Rep	Diff Change
SD 08	Gronstal/Dawson	-20
SD 26	Wilhelm/Brown	-55
SD 28	Breitbach/Heikes	-352
SD 30	Danielson/Sadler	-100
SD 32	Schoenjahn/Johnson	-224
SD 34	Mathis/Gadehla	44
SD 36	Sodders/Edler	13
SD 42	Taylor/Graber	-40
SD 46	Brase/Lofgren	-43
SD 48	Zumbach/Peterson	-319

Republicans must have collected a lot of ballots in Schoenjahn’s district, causing Schoenjahn to really backslide on his early vote advantage, likely adding to the fears that this is one Democrats will lose tonight. But Democrats mostly held steady in many of their other key districts, and even picked up a few more in Sodders’ race.

Now to the House, where things are a little more interesting:

District	Senator/Rep	Ds Voted	Rs Voted	Diff
HD 26	Ourth/Snodgrass	3343	2801	542
HD 37	Landon/Phillips	2894	2936	-42
HD 38	Koester/Matson	2723	2169	554
HD 39	Highfill/Morris	3070	3080	-10
HD 42	Cownie/Celsi	3302	2432	870
HD 43	Hagenow/Konfrst	3521	2382	1139
HD 51	Bloomingdale/Hejhal	1844	1995	-151
HD 55	Bergan/Ritter	2966	2717	249
HD 56	Ruff/Hager	1785	2412	-627
HD 57	Stetcher/Lundgren	3307	2345	962
HD 58	McKean/Kean	2643	1823	820
HD 60	Rogers/Kroeger	3049	2749	300
HD 68	Rizer/Donahue	2900	1975	925
HD 88	Kerr/Drew	2029	2050	-21
HD 91	Carlson/Weise	2515	2547	-32
HD 92	Paustian/Krumweide	2618	2183	435
HD 95	Zumbach/Whitehead	1928	1511	417

Konfrst maintains her huge early vote lead – it’s increasingly likely that Majority Leader Hagenow’s time in the Iowa House comes to an end tonight. The numbers are looking particularly good for Donahue and Kean as well, while Celsi should get a boost from early voting Democrats as well.

For the Republican pick-up districts, Ruff will be a far easier target than the Stetcher/Dunkel open seat in rural Dubuque. Ruff won in 2012 despite being down in the early vote registration numbers, but a 627 disadvantage may be too much to overcome. Northeast Iowa is very swingy, and it’s not entirely clear which way it’s going with Trump, but this corner of Iowa isn’t looking good for Democrats this year.

Here’s how things changed since Friday:

District	Senator/Rep	Diff Change
HD 26	Ourth/Snodgrass	-53
HD 37	Landon/Phillips	-299
HD 38	Koester/Matson	-51
HD 39	Highfill/Morris	-193
HD 42	Cownie/Celsi	91
HD 43	Hagenow/Konfrst	52
HD 51	Bloomingdale/Hejhal	-61
HD 55	Bergan/Ritter	-109
HD 56	Ruff/Hager	-243
HD 57	Dunkel/Stetcher	62
HD 58	McKean/Kean	100
HD 60	Rogers/Kroeger	-119
HD 68	Rizer/Donahue	98
HD 88	Kerr/Drew	-120
HD 91	Carlson/Weise	-29
HD 92	Paustian/Krumweide	-14
HD 95	Zumbach/Whitehead	-102

Republicans really boosted their numbers in their redder suburban districts, like Ankeny and Johnston. But in the more swing suburban areas, like Marion and West Des Moines, Democrats built upon their already-solid leads, no easy task in the final days.

Again, Republicans must have been busy in the Northeast corner of Iowa, where they saw big gains in both House districts there. Ryan Drew also lost some ground in his bid for a surprise upset win in Southeast Iowa – had there been enough funds to go around and some extra staff, you might have seen a Democratic ground game build a bigger early vote lead here.

If there’s another early vote update from the Secretary of State, I’ll update this post later in the day. Otherwise, make sure to tune into WOI/ABC 5 tonight – I’ll be giving analysis on the Statehouse races from 9:45 to 10:45.

 

by Pat Rynard
Posted 11/8/16