These Democratic Legislators Need To Help Boost Turnout In Their Districts

By Pat Rynard

October 4, 2016

Now that we’re several days into early voting, clear trends are beginning to emerge around the state. Early voting and absentee requests in targeted swing legislative districts are nearly twice that as non-targeted districts. This is to be expected to an extent, as a larger effort with additional staff, direct mail and candidate time is done in the districts that will determine who controls the Senate and House majority.

But when you start to think about these numbers on a statewide basis, the low early turnout numbers coming out of Iowa’s most-Democratic legislative districts is a bit concerning.

There’s a few things to keep in mind, of course. Many of these legislators from safe districts have been very busy on the campaign trail, just in other swing districts outside their own to help their fellow Democratic members and candidates. Some of the senators aren’t on the ballot this year. It also obviously takes more work and time to sign up the 17,401 Democrats in Janet Petersen’s district than it does the 10,439 Democrats in Mike Gronstal’s. And it’s largely the job of the coordinated campaign to turn out these Democrat-heavy areas of the state.

Still, it’s a little odd to see that a full 23.4% of Democrats in Liz Mathis’ district have signed up for absentee ballots, while neighboring senate and house districts represented by Wally Horn, Rob Hogg, Liz Bennett, Art Staed, Kristin Running-Marquardt and Todd Taylor are all hovering around just 10%.

Here’s a list of all the legislative districts with a Democratic incumbent and the percentage of registered Democrats who have requested an absentee (asterisks next to people who have competitive races):

District Senator/Rep Ds Registered Ds Requested % Requested
HD 15 McConkey* 5,406 1,341 24.8%
SD 8 Gronstal* 10,439 2,459 23.6%
SD 34 Mathis* 12,575 2,947 23.4%
HD 26 Ourth* 6,544 1,499 22.9%
HD 71 Smith 5,583 1,233 22.1%
SD 46 Brase* 11,841 2,573 21.7%
SD 30 Danielson* 12,717 2,729 21.5%
HD 29 Kelley/Breckenridge* 7,628 1,621 21.3%
HD 87 Cohoon 8,383 1,755 20.9%
HD 14 Dawson/Kacena* 5,972 1,218 20.4%
HD 83 Kearns 8,045 1,594 19.8%
HD 40 Forbes* 6,905 1,355 19.6%
HD 57 Dunkel/Stetcher* 7,874 1,525 19.4%
HD 52 Prichard 6,003 1,153 19.2%
SD 32 Schoenjahn* 10,486 2,001 19.1%
SD 42 Taylor* 12,568 2,367 18.8%
HD 64 Bearinger* 5,436 1,023 18.8%
SD 44 Courtney 14,002 2,628 18.8%
SD 26 Wilhelm* 11,170 2,072 18.5%
SD 29 Bowman 14,893 2,758 18.5%
HD 59 Kressig 6,381 1,181 18.5%
HD 45 Wessel-Kroeschell 7,334 1,353 18.4%
SD 36 Sodders* 10,838 1,978 18.3%
SD 15 Allen 14,524 2,542 17.5%
HD 99 Finkenauer 9,187 1,503 16.4%
SD 23 Quirmbach 14,443 2,340 16.2%
HD 98 Wolfe 6,612 1,068 16.2%
SD 49 Hart 12,302 1,865 15.2%
SD 21 McCoy 18,463 2,776 15.0%
SD 50 Jochum 17,367 2,600 15.0%
HD 13 Hall 5,438 808 14.9%
HD 56 Ruff* 4,891 713 14.6%
HD 46 Heddens 7,109 987 13.9%
HD 93 Thede 7,344 1,004 13.7%
HD 9 Miller 6,671 902 13.5%
HD 74 Jacoby 9,295 1,255 13.5%
HD 100 Isenhart 8,180 1,097 13.4%
HD 89 Lykam 7,354 968 13.2%
HD 41 Oldson 11,353 1,478 13.0%
HD 86 Mascher 10,244 1,296 12.7%
SD 45 Seng/Open 15,315 1,928 12.6%
HD 34 Hunter 8,774 1,094 12.5%
SD 43 Bolkcom 22,584 2,765 12.2%
HD 81 Gaskill 7,435 906 12.2%
HD 90 Winckler 7,961 960 12.1%
SD 37 Dvorsky 15,638 1,879 12.0%
HD 85 Lensing 12,340 1,469 11.9%
HD 36 Anderson 9,751 1,137 11.7%
DH 61 Brown-Powers 7,227 842 11.7%
HD 53 Steckman 6,638 771 11.6%
HD 32 Gaines 7,830 889 11.4%
SD 31 Dotzler 15,788 1,777 11.3%
SD 18 Petersen 17,401 1,955 11.2%
SD 17 Bisignano 16,770 1,873 11.2%
SD 27 Ragan 10,686 1,171 11.0%
HD 62 Berry/Smith 8,561 935 10.9%
SD 16 Dearden/Boulton 15,505 1,673 10.8%
HD 35 Abdul-Samad 7,650 818 10.7%
HD 66 Staed 6,852 719 10.5%
HD 31 Olson 7,675 784 10.2%
HD 77 Stutsman/Nielsen 7,893 805 10.2%
HD 69 Running-Marquardt 6,890 687 10.0%
SD 33 Hogg 15,018 1,478 9.8%
SD 39 Kinney 12,645 1,244 9.8%
SD 35 Horn 14,546 1,425 9.8%
HD 33 Meyer 7,996 779 9.7%
HD 70 Taylor 7,656 738 9.6%
HD 65 Bennett 8,166 759 9.3%
HD 82 Hanson 6,398 591 9.2%

Many of the targeted incumbent Democratic state senators lead the list, with Gronstal, Mathis, Brase and Danielson topping the rest. Both Gronstal and Charlie McConkey of Council Bluffs are benefitting from their joint ground game. Scott Ourth is doing very well considering he doesn’t have a competitive state senate race above him helping out. Patti Ruff is a little further down the list than you’d like to see considering her opponent has apparently started running TV ads.

The bottom of the list is rounded out by mostly Polk and Linn County districts. The Cedar Rapids ones were likely impacted by the flooding last week that disrupted many residents’ lives, along with the Linn County Auditor’s office being in the closed-off flood zone. Regardless, both Polk and Linn County incumbents need to activate some of their local teams to help push these numbers up.

Now here’s a list of the legislative districts represented by a Republican that are competitive this year (see my earlier list), along with a few extra ones tossed in:

District Senator/Rep Ds Registered Ds Requested % Requested
HD 60 Rogers/Kroeger 6,356 1,548 24.4%
HD 67 Hinson/Seidl 5,979 1,438 24.1%
HD 43 Hagenow/Konfrst 7,358 1,765 24.0%
HD 68 Rizer/Donahue 6,596 1,509 22.9%
HD 92 Paustian/Krumweide 5,970 1,312 22.0%
HD 91 Carlson/Weise 5,871 1,261 21.5%
HD 63 Salmon/Meyer 5,050 978 19.4%
HD 38 Koester/Matson 6,681 1,259 18.8%
HD 42 Cownie/Celsi 7,110 1,298 18.3%
HD 51 Bloomingdale/Hejhal 5,167 919 17.8%
HD 58 McKean/Kean 7,019 1,233 17.6%
HD 55 Bergan/Ritter 5,767 981 17.0%
SD 20 Zaun/Hikiji 13,427 2,180 16.2%
SD 28 Breitbach/Heikes 10,748 1,694 15.8%
HD 88 Kerr/Drew 5,619 873 15.5%
HD 95 Zumbach/Whitehead 6,150 888 14.4%
HD 72 Fisher/Wrage 5,255 745 14.2%
HD 30 Nunn/Riding 6,896 921 13.4%
SD 48 Zumbach/Peterson 10,539 1,381 13.1%
HD 37 Landon/Phillips 6,738 864 12.8%
HD 39 Highfill/Morris 6,522 825 12.6%

Of the top five, only Jennifer Konfrst doesn’t have a competitive senate race helping her, making those numbers in Polk County all the more impressive. It’s rather disconcerting to see the Northeast Iowa races so far down the list, with Jan Heikes’ race at only 15.8% of their Democrats signed up for early vote.

Obviously, the emphasis right now is on the swing districts, and for people who can travel to them, that’s where volunteers should go. But for local volunteers who typically work their own precincts? These legislators need to call up their district crew of volunteers and get them out on the doors more. It’s crucial for Hillary Clinton’s chances to win Iowa this year. Plus, they need to ramp up their local base to get prepared for the 2018 fight. Because even though many of these legislators live in safe districts, they won’t get many of their priorities done if Republicans win the Governor’s office yet again. For those Democratic legislators sitting on a pile of good Democratic precincts, it’s time to turn out the vote.

 

by Pat Rynard
Posted 10/4/16

  • Pat Rynard

    Pat Rynard founded Iowa Starting Line in 2015. He is now Courier Newsroom's National Political Editor, where he oversees political reporters across the country. He still keeps a close eye on Iowa politics, his dog's name is Frank, and football season is his favorite time of year.

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