What a tumultuous time the Republican field has experienced in just the path month. Nearly every candidate’s standing has changed considerably from the last time we ranked the Republican White House hopefuls back in June. It was an incredibly busy weekend for Starting Line, so this isn’t as extensive as I’d like, but here we go:
1. Donald Trump – Trump! Trump! Trump! Everyone (including me) predicted his downfall after his many questionable and incendiary statements. But he’s survived it all and I’m really not sure what could damage him at this point. Maybe a debate where they just ask him wonky policy questions and he fails badly to answer any (Fox News’ idea to attack him was so stupid – he does his best on the defensive). Republican voters are fed up and they like someone who sounds as angry as them, even if there’s next to no substance behind Trump’s words. I’m a little hesitant to put him at #1, because I wonder if all these people excited about him are really going to show up on caucus night. But when he’s so far ahead of the rest of the pack in the polls, and you see the turnout and enthusiasm for him, it’s hard not to. True, he’s still only in the 20-25% range in the polls, with a significant part of the party wanting nothing to do with him, but in this fractured field that’s all you need.
4. Jeb Bush – He may be down in a lot of polls, likely in part due to Trump’s non-stop attacks on his immigration stances, but Bush stays near the top because he’s doing Iowa right. He has a real organization in the state, recently released a list of county leaders (exactly the type of thing good Iowa Caucus operations do) and spent over four hours at the State Fair despite the massive press scrum around him. His debate performance left something to be desired, as he came off as just kind of “meh.”
7. Mike Huckabee – He’s still sticking around in the Iowa Caucus conversation, doing multi-day trips through his old 2008 stomping grounds rather often. The turnouts to his events have been good, not great. The eventual caucus night attendance may be too high, however, for him to replicate his past win here. Still, he’s doing ok.
10. John Kasich – A bunch of media and Democrats (including me) thought Kasich did really well in the first debate. Unfortunately for him, those people don’t typically go to the Republican caucus. Right now, Kasich just needs to keep his name in the conversation, and he is certainly doing that. He’s focused much more on New Hampshire, however.
12. Rick Santorum – He did pretty well in the debate, but still needs some sort of break-out moment, and I’m not sure where that would come from.
14. Chris Christie – Nothing really new to say about Christie. I personally thought he did well in the debate. He hasn’t been back to Iowa much. It’s too bad – if he really wanted to get attention, he should have spoken on the Soapbox in the evening of the State Fair’s East Side Night. Starting Line might have given him an early endorsement as thanks for the pure entertainment value alone.
15. Lindsey Graham – Everyone loves to hear what Graham has to say, but no one seems too interested in caucusing for him yet. He earns a ton of free press, however, for where he is in the polls.
16. George Pataki – He actually had a decent speech on the Soapbox yesterday, but he’s not going anywhere anytime soon.
by Pat Rynard
Posted 8/17/15
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